According to the set state science and technology (Trendforce) under the research sector survey, DRAMeXchange DDR3 2GB contract prices since the first half of 2010 from $ 46.5 high point road in early September after depreciation fell in late October, US $ 40 again fell below $ 30. In early November for about $ 25 price, compared with the high point of this year amounted to 46% decline. Although notebook computers ship better than expected in September, as the traditional peak season demand is still not active, quarter growth only 2.6%. DRAM output, in addition to the Samsung because process is better than any other industry, plus the immersion into the time machine, the output of the increase in the third quarter reached its peak, and let Samsung in the third quarter revenue performance with bright eyes; on the other hand, other DRAM makers, immersion machine into a point in time are mostly concentrated in the second half of this year, output has increased significantly in the fourth quarter, the supply is greater than demand coupled with DRAM manufacturers have stress in retail to lower prices for orders is late October at the end of the contract price to speed up the time. Set state technology predictions at the end of this year under the contract price may DDR3 at under $ 20 USD, will be more than 30% decrease in QoQ.
As foreseen, DRAM prices fell sharply, DRAM plant have on future capital expenditures to conservative as Samsung Fab16 building, depending on future market conditions make adjustments, one of the factory as force Crystal under maintenance capital expenditures were approximately 20% to NT $ 160 billion, Japan-Taiwan joint venture in the Shui Jing R2 factory enlarged factory plans to defer the discussion. Bida-on 4 November F2Q method said, that will be output standard DRAM monthly production capacity to 6 million tablets, output direction may reduce outsourcing manufacturing parts, or reduce Japan Hiroshima factory standard DRAM of tablets. Nov 8, Powerchip and follow up announced production standard DRAM10%-15% of the production goes to OEM products. At the same time markets are also transmitted to sea Guinness for 44nm yield is poor, the impact of the third and fourth quarters of outputs.
Prospect of 2011, set bang technology estimated 2011 DRAM output growth accelerated in manufacturers throughout the process go into, up to 50%, the status of the process go into, Samsung 35nm process is expected during the second half of next year will be more than 50%, the rest of the international plant also speed up the process, 3Xnm hailishi, beautiful light and El BIDA are expected next year's second quarter production technology, Taiwan Department of 3Xnm plant next year is to accelerate the transition into 4xnm target. Each race to go into production, expectations will further lower the cost of production, to respond to rapid decline of DRAM.
Predictor DRAMeXchange, prices are expected to be in the first quarter of next year or the end of the second quarter fell. 2011 PC sales growth is expected as 11.8%, coupled with the Tablet PC to stimulate Mobile RAM requirements grow above 80%. However, in the standard DRAM prices plunge worries, DRAM plant capital expenditure in the first half of next year may be conservative to on, the expected in the first quarter of next year, is expected to boost low DRAM computer manufacturers to increase the rate of DRAM piggyback. Predictor DRAMeXchange DT 2011 and NB pick-up rate of growth of single-4.22GB/4.00GB, annual rate of 36% and 31%, market expectations of growth, with DRAM can make market by excess supply-demand balance, back to the market prices in the second half.